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John Wheeler, WDAY, Published May 05 2014

Weather Talk: Cold winter, spring aren’t guarantee of hot summer

After seven months of generally cold weather, many people have contacted the weather center to ask if the summer is more likely to be a hot one. No, it is not.

Understand that this resounding “no” is not necessarily a forecast of a gloomy, London-like summer. It is intended to be a statement that the cold winter and spring is not a guarantee of a hot summer.

Seasonal forecasts are difficult to make. This is because individual weather systems, such as the big storm last week that brought so much rain and storminess to the nation, can change a season dramatically. And individual storm systems cannot be forecast weeks or months in advance.

A big subtropical high pressure system could bring a month of hot weather to us in the middle of summer just as easily as last week’s storm turned a dry spring wet. But the large-scale influences such as ocean temperatures, El Niño, and others all suggest to me that our summer is more likely to be near or below average with rainfall near or above average.

Have a weather question you’d like answered? Email weather@wday.com,

or write to WDAY Stormtracker, WDAY-TV, Box 2466, Fargo, ND 58108

Read the blog at http://stormtrack.areavoices.com/.