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Daryl Ritchison, WDAY, Published May 20 2013

Weather Talk: Weather pattern from one season doesn’t typically correlate to next

One of the most common questions that comes into the weather center deals with correlation. We are often asked if this is because this season is (insert hot, cold, dry or wet), does that mean the next season will be (insert hot, cold, dry or wet). In other words, they are asking whether there is a correlation between what is occurring now and what we can expect in the future.

Our cold spring has many people inquiring if a hot summer is coming, as that would then “balance” the weather. There can be some correlation between seasons, especially when dealing with El Nino or La Nina events, yet even in those instances, the relationship is nowhere near 100 percent accurate. As a general rule, a pattern from one season does not correlate very well with future seasons.

This summer will not necessarily continue to be cold, or end up extremely warm, based on what has been occurring these past few months.


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