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John Wheeler, WDAY, Published April 25 2013

Weather Talk: Changeable weather leads to change in flood forecast

Now that the rivers are finally rising, the National Weather Service crest predictions are beginning to look better (lower). The changing river forecasts over the past few months are part of a dynamic involving myriad changing conditions.

We went from a drought to a pretty crazy sequence of snowstorms. We had soils that were wet on top, dry underneath and frozen very deeply. But April rains have been lighter than feared and the persistent cool, freeze/

thaw temperatures have allowed the soils to thaw and accept moisture from the melting snow.

Some people claim the National Weather Service River forecasts were deliberately inflated as part of a conspiracy to get the F-M Diversion funded. Others claim the Weather Service is “always too high” with its river forecasts. But in other springs, river forecasts have missed both high and low.

The fact is, the forecast changed because of the same highly changeable element that exists each and every spring: the weather.

Have a weather question you’d like answered? Email weather@wday.com,

or write to WDAY Stormtracker, WDAY-TV, Box 2466, Fargo, ND 58108

Read the blog at http://stormtrack.areavoices.com/.